N ° 2010 - 12 On the long - run evolution of inheritance : France 1820 - 2050

This paper attempts to document and account for the long run evolution of inheritance. We find that in a country like France the annual flow of inheritance was about 20%-25% of national income between 1820 and 1910, down to less than 5% in 1950, and back up to about 15% by 2010. A simple theoretical model of wealth accumulation, growth and inheritance can fully account for the observed U-shaped pattern and levels. Using this model, we find that under plausible assumptions the annual bequest flow might reach about 20%-25% of national income by 2050. This corresponds to a capitalized bequest share in total wealth accumulation well above 100%. Our findings illustrate the fact that when the growth rate g is small, and when the rate of return to private wealth r is permanently and substantially larger than the growth rate (say, r=4%-5% vs. g=1%-2%), which was the case in the 19 century and early 20 century and is likely to happen again in the 21 century, then past wealth and inheritance are bound to play a key role for aggregate wealth accumulation and the structure of lifetime inequality. Contrarily to a widely spread view, modern economic growth did not kill inheritance. * Professor of Economics at the Paris School of Economics (PSE) & Directeur d’études at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) ** I am grateful to seminar participants at the Paris School of Economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona), the Massachussetts Institute of Technology, Harvard University, New York University, Boston University and the University of Chicago for helpful reactions. All comments are welcome ([email protected]). A detailed data appendix supplementing the present working paper is available online at www.jourdan.ens.fr/piketty/inheritance/ . ha ls hs -0 05 64 85 3, v er si on 2 11 F eb 2 01 1